By
May 31, 2021
-The Western Standard
A new poll conducted by Mainstreet Research for the Western Standard shows Alberta’s political landscape quickly evolving toward a three-party system.
If an election were held today, the NDP would likely form a majority government, the UCP reduced to official opposition, and the Wildrose Independence Party would be on the cusp of entering the Alberta Legislature.
In the poll of 1,010 Albertans, the NDP had the support of 35% of respondents, and the UCP 28%. Support for the Wildrose has risen from 9% in January to 16% of decided and leaning voters.
According to a Leger poll conducted at the end of April, Alberta’s provincial government is the least popular in Canada. Jason Kenney’s approval rating has dropped from a high of 63% in July 2020 to just 30% in May 2021.
Our modeling at LeanTossUp.ca projects how this all would break down into seats if the poll was translated into an election today.
Due to the large NDP gains from 2019, it now completely sweeps Edmonton, including winning many exurban ridings, and makes deep gains into Calgary. Our model projects the NDP is likely to win four seats in the communities surrounding Edmonton, and will expand their current Calgary caucus from three members to 18, more than enough to secure a majority government.
Even traditionally “safe” conservative seats in Calgary are now in play. Jason Kenney’s own constituency of Calgary-Lougheed, has tightened considerably, as his lead has slipped to only 17.2%, down from his 41.2% win in 2019.
Our modeling at LeanTossUp.ca projects how this all would break down into seats if the poll was translated into an election today.
Due to the large NDP gains from 2019, it now completely sweeps Edmonton, including winning many exurban ridings, and makes deep gains into Calgary. Our model projects the NDP is likely to win four seats in the communities surrounding Edmonton, and will expand their current Calgary caucus from three members to 18, more than enough to secure a majority government.
Even traditionally “safe” conservative seats in Calgary are now in play. Jason Kenney’s own constituency of Calgary-Lougheed, has tightened considerably, as his lead has slipped to only 17.2%, down from his 41.2% win in 2019.
The UCP is facing challenges on two fronts, with the NDP pressuring them in the cities and suburbs while the Wildrose have become serious alternative in rural and small-town Alberta. The COVID-19 pandemic has effectively positioned the UCP as a centrist party within Alberta’s political landscape, with one side believing COVID-19 restrictions were too lax, and the other side believing the restrictions went too far.
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