Spencer Fernando

June 6, 2021

-Spencer Fernando News&Commentary


Without a rapid and decisive course-correction, the Conservative Party of Canada is on pace for historically bad numbers, possibly giving Trudeau a path to a majority due to their total weakness.

Sometimes, one or two polls can be dismissed if they go against the trend.

After all, we know that polling is far less a ‘science’ than an ‘art,’ and individual polls can be wildly wrong.

But when enough polls start to add up and show something similar, and when what they show is inline with what we see on the ground, it becomes tougher and tougher to dismiss them all.

And what the polls are showing right now is the Conservative Party facing an absolutely disastrous election result.

Here’s what the latest Nanos numbers say:

“Federal Polling:

LPC: 38%
CPC: 24%
NDP: 20%

Nanos Research / July 2, 2021 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone”

Here’s the latest Abacus Data poll:

“Federal Polling:

LPC: 37% (+4)
CPC: 25% (-9)
NDP: 20% (+4)
BQ: 7% (-1)
GPC: 6% (-1)
PPC: 3% (+1)

Abacus Data / June 30, 2021 / n=1204 / Online

(% Change With 2019 Election)

Check Out All Federal Polling On
At: https://338canada.com/polls.htm”

In an Ipsos poll from later in June, the Liberals also led by a wide margin:

“Federal Polling:

LPC: 38% (+5)
CPC: 26% (-8)
NDP: 20% (+4)
BQ: 8% (-)
GPC: 7% (-)
PPC: 1% (-1)

Ipsos / June 22, 2021 / n=1501 / Online

(% change with 2019 federal election)

Check out all federal polling on
at: https://338canada.com/polls.htm”

You’ll note something consistent in all these polls:

The CPC is closer to the NDP than they are to the Liberals.

A deeper dive into the latest Abacus poll – a pollster that was quite accurate in 2019 – reveals terrible numbers for the Conservatives.

The CPC is at just 21% in BC, far behind the Liberals and NDP who are at 34% and 32% respectively.

In Alberta, the Conservatives are down to just 38%, with the Liberals at 27% and the NDP at 20%. Of note, the PPC has 8% support in Alberta, with 4% saying they will vote for ‘other,’ which Abacus says is likely the Maverick Party vote.

In Saskatchewan & Manitoba, the CPC has 38%, with the NDP at 27% and the Liberals at 26%. Given that the CPC is stronger in Saskatchewan, the combined number likely means the NDP and/or Liberals are leading in Manitoba.

In vote-rich Ontario, the Liberals lead the CPC by a wide margin, with the Liberals at 40% and the Conservatives at 26%. Again, in keeping with the trend, the CPC is closer to the NDP (who have 22%), than they are to the Liberals.

In Quebec, the Liberals are fighting it out with the Bloc, leading them 37% to 29%. Despite all the efforts to pander to Quebec, the CPC remains far behind at just 17%.

And in Atlantic Canada – where the CPC shot themselves in the foot by seemingly rejecting Peter MacKay’s interest in running for a seat – the Liberals dominate with 53% compared to the CPC at a woeful 20%. The NDP also has 20% in the region.

Horrific numbers

Ipsos, Abacus, and Nanos all show a similar situation unfolding:

A terrible drop in support for the CPC.

It’s essential to note how the Liberals are up 3 to 5 points in those polls compared to the 2019 election, while the CPC is down between 8-10 points. This isn’t simply a shift of votes from the CPC to the Liberals, and Trudeau is not much more popular than he was two years ago.

Rather, this is the CPC itself bleeding out support from their core voter base.

Ironically, this is reminiscent of Stephane Dion’s tenure leading the Liberal Party. Under Dion, the Liberals lost many of their own supporters, who chose to stay home or vote for parties further to the left. As a result, the CPC gained seats despite not having become much more popular.

In that case however, Dion was simply uncharismatic and a poor communicator in English. He didn’t abandon his party base.

By contrast, Erin O’Toole has attempted to pull a bait-and-switch, shifting from ‘True Blue’ to now embracing the same ‘Liberal Lite’ stance he claimed Peter MacKay would have imposed.

As a result, the CPC has abandoned much of their base – with some prominent CPC MPs even embracing the language and worldview of the radical left – while failing to win over the general public.

This can be seen in the latest Abacus poll, where just 64% of Canadians who describe themselves as being on the ‘right’ of the political spectrum say they will vote Conservative.

The CPC is proving unable to coalesce support among those who are already inclined to be pro-Conservative, which is a predictable result of the party shifting away from Conservatism.

Think about what the CPC is currently offering:

They’ve booted out prominent social Conservative Derek Sloan (who represents many right-wing cultural Conservatives in the party).

They demoted Pierre Poilievre, probably their most effective advocate for limited government, and fiscal responsibility, not to mention someone who has a strong social media following.

They’ve said they won’t balance the budget for another decade.

They’ve embraced political correctness in many cases, showing a real sense of fear of being criticized by the media.

As mentioned previously, some of their MPs have even started embracing the far-left ‘critical race theory’ worldview, a worldview that is about as anti-conservative and anti-common-sense as it gets.

And, they’ve largely abandoned the field when it comes to criticisms of lockdowns and rampant government overreach, having little to say about the fact that our ‘rights and freedoms’ have been exposed as mere privileges granted to us by hypocritical politicians.

Further, they’ve done all of this while being led by someone who unfortunately seems to lack charisma or star power, despite being a relatively effective public speaker.

Pulling off such a huge bait-and-switch would only be possible (though still the wrong thing to do), with an immensely charismatic and personally popular figure, not a leader who generates mild feelings at best.

A historic defeat?

In the 2000 election, the Liberals won a majority of seats with 40.85% of the vote.

The Canadian Alliance finished in second place, winning 66 seats and 25.49% of the popular vote.

That result – which came as the Progressive Conservatives won 12.19% – nevertheless led to Stockwell Day being replaced as Canadian Alliance leader by Stephen Harper, and the merger of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives into the Conservative Party of Canada.

Since then, the worst result for the CPC has been to pull in 29% of the vote, and in 2019 – even under a leader lacking in much charisma – they pulled in 34% of the vote.

After all, the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives generally won about 35%-40% of the vote combined, and at least 33% of the country is ideologically Conservative/centre-right to some degree, so that should be about the baseline.

All of this is to say that for the CPC to be polling at 24%-25% in a series of polls is an absolute indictment of their current leadership.

As I’ve repeatedly pointed out, abandoning your core supporters in the hope of winning over a bunch of new voters risks losing those you already have, while gaining nothing in return.

And that is exactly what’s happening with the CPC.

Their current core voters are becoming so demoralized from the absence of conservatism in the party, while the rest of the public isn’t buying into the rapid shift.

And why would they?

If CPC voters couldn’t trust the ‘True Blue’ messaging, why would the general public trust the new ‘centrism’?

Again, we have to really see how bad this is, and I think you can see it.

If the CPC could get 34% in 2019, in a campaign that wasn’t especially creative or well-run, then to fall to 24%-25% is absolute political malpractice.

MPs must speak up

The irony of this situation is that the worse the poll numbers get, the more powerful individual CPC MPs become.

Erin O’Toole’s removal of Derek Sloan was an attempt to rule-by-fear, showing that he could flip on someone he once claimed to support and boot them out under a disgraceful pretext.

Yet, since that move, and since the flip on the carbon tax, the CPC has continued to bleed out support.

At some point, O’Toole’s ability to rule-by-fear will evaporate as MPs realize that he can’t boot them all out, and as the CPC looks weaker and weaker.

MPs need to start speaking up, publicly, in a series of pressure-tactics to force O’Toole to shift the party in a more Conservative direction.

They need to push for real cuts to government spending, legislation to defend and entrench free speech, the reinstatement of booted out MPs like Derek Sloan, publicly welcoming back PPC members, a cancellation of the horrendous carbon-tax scheme, and legislation to restrict the ability of the state to impose draconian lockdowns.

This must be done, and it must be done quickly, otherwise the party will continue to bleed away votes, giving Trudeau a path to a majority that would be a disaster for this nation.